Leeds vs Manchester City | Premier League betting tips & predictions

Saturday’s last English Premier League fixture is all about what two teams that cannot afford to make any more mistakes, Leeds and Manchester City, must do to avoid any slip-ups tomorrow.

Leeds are fighting for survival in the English Premier League and will welcome three points at home to hold off Burnley and Everton.

Between February and March, they lost six games in a row and looked likely to drop down a division next season along with Norwich. In recent weeks, they’ve stabilized their form and even gone on a five-game unbeaten run since mid-March.

That run is likely to end against City, however. The reigning Premier League champions are in a separate, but no less desperate battle to hold off Liverpool’s challenge and lift a sixth English Premier League title.

Read on below for our match preview and prediction!

 

Leeds vs Manchester City H2H record

Leeds and Manchester City have met 10 times with both teams winning four games each and drawing two games.

Manchester City are currently the number 1 team in the Premier League with 80 points from 33 games while Leeds are hovering just above the relegation zone with 34 points in 33 games.

Form guide

Surprisingly, the home side is in better form than the Citizens. Leeds have won three games and drawn two of their last five games (Form: D-W-D-W-W) while Man City have won three games, drawn one and lost one (Form: W-W-W-L-D)

Leeds vs Manchester City Team news

Several Leeds first-team players are missing through injury. Adam Forshaw (Calf injury), Crysencio Summerville (Ankle injury), Jamie Shackleton (Calf injury), Junior Firpo (Knee injury), Mateusz Klich (Hip injury), Patrick Bamford (Knee injury), and Tyler Roberts (Tendon Injury) are all expected to miss the game.

Key midfielder, Kalvin Phillips, finally made his long-awaited return against Southampton after losing over 3 months of action to a hamstring injury. The English international finally made his return to the starting lineup against Crystal Palace last weekend and is in line for another start this weekend against Manchester City.

Expected Leeds starting lineup: Illan Mesiler. Luke Ayling, Diego Llorente, Liam Cooper, Stuart Dallas. Robin Koch, Kalvin Phillips. Raphinha, Rodrigo, Jack Harrison. Daniel James. (4-2-3-1)

John Stones (Muscle injury) is out of the game while Kyle Walker (Sprained ankle) is a doubt for the game.

Man City manager, Pep Guardiola will be torn between the urge to rest his key players for this game or to start them, hoping to put the game to bed quickly and take them off early. Either way, he will be especially mindful of Liverpool on Man City’s heels.

Expected Manchester City starting lineup: Ederson. João Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Aymeric Laporte, Oleksandr Zinchenko. Rodri, Ilkay Gündoğan, Kevin de Bruyne. Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus, Phil Foden. (4-3-3)

Relevant stats

Leeds United (2.1 goals/game) are ranked 19th in goals conceded per game while Man City are ranked 1st in that category with 0.6 goals conceded per match.
Leeds goalkeeper, Illan Mesiler, makes 3.8 saves per game, ranked 1st in the division. He will have all he can handle from Man City who average 6.7 shots on target per game, the second-highest in the Premier League.
Leeds United have conceded 5 penalties this season while Man City have scored 8, the joint-highest in the division. Leeds United average 12.18 fouls per game and have received 93 yellow cards this season, the highest in the division. That poor discipline is a loophole that Man City can exploit.
Leeds have a ball possession average of 54.1% of this season while Man City have the highest ball possession stats in the Premier League, averaging 68.1% this season. The away side are expected to dominate the ball.
Leeds have conceded the second-highest xG this season (64.5) while Man City have the second-highest xG going forward (83.37). The home side is likely to concede several high-quality chances to the away team.
Leeds have had 45 corner kicks in the last five games, for an average of 9 per game. In Man City’s last five games, 48 corner kicks have been taken, averaging 9.6 per game.
Raphinha has scored 10 Premier League goals this season from an xG of 9.8 while Kevin De Bruyne has scored the most goals for Manchester City this season. The Belgian has scored 11 goals from an xG of 4.8, massively outperforming the xG.

Leeds vs Manchester City predictions

Manchester City are overwhelming favorites to win for a reason. We’ll go with the expert prediction here: Manchester City away win @ 1.32

The amount of territory Man City will control as well as Leeds being likely to retreat to the edge of their box makes a lot of corner kicks a high possibility. Over 6.5 corner kicks for Man City is another good value bet, especially @ 1.62.

The way City attack will also put a lot of pressure on the Leeds defence. The home side’s poor discipline makes Over 4.5 bookings a good value bet @ 2.58

You can also place a cheeky bet on Man City corner kicks. Games involving the English giants have seen an average of 9.6 corners over their last five games. With the level of dominance they’re expected to exert in this game, Man City to get over 6.5 corner kicks is a punt worth taking.

*DISCLAIMER: Odds are subject to change

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Author: Clayton Kuhn